On the probabilities of local behaviors in abelian field extensions

For a number field K and a finite abelian group G, we determine the probabilities of various local completions of a random G-extension of K when extensions are ordered by conductor. In particular, for a fixed prime ℘ of K, we determine the probability that ℘ splits into r primes in a random G-extension of K that is unramified at ℘. We find that these probabilities are nicely behaved and mostly independent. This is in analogy to Chebotarev’s density theorem, which gives the probability that in a fixed extension a random prime of K splits into r primes in the extension. We also give the asymptotics for the number of G-extensions with bounded conductor. In fact, we give a class of extension invariants, including conductor, for which we obtain the same counting and probabilistic results. In contrast, we prove that that neither the analogy with the Chebotarev probabilities nor the independence of probabilities holds when extensions are ordered by discriminant.